As merchants it is our job to look ahead. Knowing what is just beyond the horizon is important in planning our commitments and where we put our greater efforts with respect to acquisitions. The harvests are in, we have a pattern of what to expect when based on history, and the information is already out there. It’s a simple matter of paying attention.
So what does 2023 have in store? We’ve read the economic forecasts which are quite varied but that really isn’t our niche. One publication was pretty certain that prices weren’t going to increase drastically this year. To that we’d say a couple of things. Given our experience over some four decades our only comment to that is that it is folly to try and predict what wineries will do. Also, prices already have risen substantially over the last few years in some categories and have been at levels that would seem unsustainable except under the most utopian of economic scenarios. In closing, one article suggested that this year the consumer needed to be ‘smart’. Isn’t that always the case?
Here at home in California and, to an extent, Oregon, the key issue is still the fallout from the 2020 vintage and all of the smoke taint. A lot of wineries chose not to make a 2020 Cabernet. But we doubt all that juice got thrown away. It’s out there somewhere being tweaked and filtered to make it salable. We are being beyond careful in tasting things from 2020 on the lookout for signs of fire. As we told everyone repeatedly, there are still some 2018 and 2019 Cabernets out there that should be snapped up so one doesn’t have to be concerned with 2020. Also, there are wineries that did release 2020s. Were they unique cases where was no taint or were those wineries less concerned about that aspect? Hard to say. Like the guy said, the consumer has to be smart. The few 2021s we have tasted so far from California and Oregon have been quite promising.
If there is a sweeping statement to be made, this is one of the most promising period for French red Burgundies we can recall. The 2019s that remain are tender and delightful and the 2020s that will make up the bulk of arrivals over the next few months are in a class by themselves. There are abundant sexy choices that will age beautifully as well. While the general price range of these wines isn’t exactly cheap, it’s certainly no worse that high profile California Pinot. The thing is that with 2019 and 2020, the quality of the vintage trickles down to almost every price range. If you can swing it, load up on Burgundies. You won’t regret it.
Bordeaux is on a strong roll with a series of winning vintages. The 2018s are here, the 2019s have started arriving and 2020s next in line. We can’t recall any time where there were three such sensational vintages in a row in Bordeaux. So as far as the juice goes, it’s epically good. The question is more political/economic. With 2021 not being particularly noteworthy and early rumors of 2022 being quite enthusiastic, what happens to the prices of the yet unsold 2020s? On the one hand you’ve got less than dynamic economics worldwide and other factors affecting modern megamarkets in Russia and China, versus the Bordelaise’s historic tendency to see what the market will bear. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out but there is plenty of good juice to be had. To the point, what is currently offered is already priced so buying the ‘bird in the hand’ is a good strategy.
Italy will provide plenty of excitement. The whites from the northeast (Alto Adige, Friuli, etc.) continue to set a high standard with ’20 and ’21 yielding one riveting, zesty white after another. As to Chianti, 2019 was very good and 2020 good enough, but the real story is that the whole region seems to be upping its game and a number of lesser known, newly energized estates will add to the fun with surprisingly expressive efforts. It will be an important year for Barolo lovers as the 2019s are due to hit this year.
As for the rest, we don’t expect any shocking changes. Argentina and Chile are continuing to excel as winemaking takes advantage of more in-depth knowledge of how to express the unique terroirs. They are stars on the rise and will continue to be a source of distinctive, exciting juice. The ‘other’ Southern Hemisphere (South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia) will continue to generate hits but, thus far, people haven’t really embraced the categories. Aussie winemakers have said the 2021 is special so we’ll see if that moves the needle here in the U.S.. We still remember the ‘glory days’ and we’re still believers that the good guys are making worthy wines.
Spain will continue to be a major source of high quality and value at virtually all price levels, and there are key producers hitting special vintages like 2010, 2016, and 2019 that will definitely create some ‘must buy’ scenarios.
Middle Europe (Germany, Austria, Alsace) is definitely taking care of business but still under appreciated in the broad marketplace, particularly given the expanded range of Asian and Pacific Rim cuisines that they play beautifully with.
We can almost guarantee that you will see things you haven’t seen before. As an overlay to everything, global warming will cause changes in outcomes in familiar regions and even create scenarios where varietals that generally exist as blending grapes will get a shot at a leading role thanks to the new dynamic.
As usual, we’ll be digging for the best values and best efforts. We’ll find them because we’re willing to do the work. Just like last year, and the year before that, this year we’ll see more wines than virtually anyone in the industry because we learned a long time ago that if you don’t ‘look’, you don’t ‘find’. Whatever it takes. Our suppliers appreciate the opportunity but tell us we are not easy to please. That’s true. But we tell them that we answer to higher authority. You folks.
Happy New Year.