Typically at the start of the year we put out a little piece telling consumers what to be on the lookout for the coming months wine-wise. We hadn’t gotten to it yet, and not because we were remiss or lazy, but simply because the factors that will affect how this year plays out don’t actually have all that much to do specifically with wine itself and they’re kind of unpredictable in how they will play out.
The first issue didn’t exist when we wrote the last piece like this. That would be COVID. The pandemic hasn’t affected wine specifically. But it has impacted everything involved with getting wine harvested, made, shipped and delivered. It completely altered the the way wine was sold, had a huge negative impact on the restaurant industry, and greatly changed the fortunes of almost everyone in the distribution end of the business as a function of everything else that went on.
The second non-wine issue, combined with the first, dealt a serious blow to players at every level of the industry. That would be the levying of tariffs on agricultural products (like wine) from Europe in response to a flap about Airbus subsidies. By dropping immediate 25% price increases (due to tariffs) onto importers, price points on certain items became considerably less attractive, and huge, unexpected cash outlays were forced upon those who were unfortunate enough to have wines ‘on the water’ (in shipping containers) when it was decided to initiate the whole tariff program. Unexpected levies of six-figure sums can ruin your whole day, or your livelihood, but that didn’t seem to matter in the international poker game of the time.
For all of good things in the works from the wine world this year, everything we talk about depends on those two factors in terms of`how they will sort out. You’ve got to have people drive the trucks, load and unload the boat, and all of the other physical things it takes to move goods through the system.
Perhaps more significant is the tariff issue and removal thereof. Nobody wants to bring in imports that are going to be 25% higher priced than they should be, or even worse have tariffed inventory on hand when the levies (hopefully) come off. This whole situation stagnates the flow of the market until everything is resolved. We could go into a whole tirade about how taxing wine imports hurt American wine importers and merchants considerably more than anyone else, but the point now is to get it fixed.
Speaking of imports, there is a lot to like when they do arrive. As we have alluded to in other pieces, the 2019s from Germany and Austria are special based on the reviews and the few things we have tasted thus far. The 2019s from northeast Italy and Galicia have been consistently impressive, too. White from Burgundy and the Rhone, while not necessarily ‘epic’, are quite serviceable.
There are lots of happy places in Europe for reds. You’ve got 2018 and 2019 Bordeaux, the 2018s pretty serious though remarkably juicy and friendly for the genre, and 2019s are even more promising, ‘vintage-of-the-century’ type stuff. Rhones (both north and south) are impressive again in 2019 and can hang with prior top vintages from those areas. Beaujolais and Burgundy both hit the mark as well, with 2019s perhaps not with as much fruit packed in as the 2015, but rounder, more open, and often as seductive as that very appealing vintage.
This will be a good run for Cabernet lovers as 2018 and 2019 appear to be back-to-back winners. Antonio Galloni put a good spin on it, saying of 2018, “What the 2018s don’t quite have is the visceral thrill factor of the truly great recent vintages such as 2013 and 2016, but they come very close. Improvements in farming and winemaking elevate many 2018s into the stratosphere. There are so many 2018s that are simply mind-blowing. But what stands out most about the 2018s is their consistency. It is very hard to go wrong with a bottle of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon. “
Our observation of 2018 Cabernets, etc. thus far is that they may not be the biggest or most structured, but they are lavish, creamy, and enormously likable as a group. The ‘hit ratio’ has soared above 2017 and the continuity and front-to-back harmony, with supple texture and ripe, well-meshed tannins with the 2018s is impressive even within the context of a pretty serious run of vintages.
We should start seeing 2019s later in the year and the early word is they are maybe even better. We heard happy noises out of Napa not long after the 2019 harvest was completed. A quick take from Galloni. “…the 2019s I have tasted so far are fabulous. The wines feel like they have a little more energy, power and depth than the 2018s. I imagine much of that has to do with smaller berries and higher skin-to-juice ratios. That extra kick of late heat seems to have given the wines just enough added concentration to fill out their frames. Acidities, though, are on the lower side, so the perception is of wines that are both rich and energetic. In some ways, 2019 reminds me of 2010, but not as extreme. Winemakers generally describe the wines as extracting easily, the sign of a vintage that has a lot of natural richness.”
While there are no tariffs here (though one could argue that tariffs on the imports make them less competitive and allow domestic producers to justify higher prices), there’s a caveat to remember. Prices and availability. We don’t know how much the disastrous fires of 2020 in California and Oregon will affect the overall market. Wineries can do a number of things to make up for what is generally considered a missing vintage because so much of the 2020 harvest suffered from smoke taint.
Wineries can raise prices (even more!) to slow down sales or drag out releases to maintain some sort of perceived ‘availability’. Neither of those are consumer-friendly but we are pretty sure that some version of that will occur. Also, as an adjunct, we have heard that large sized wine concerns have been looking up and down the state for quality juice to buy. This will likely put the squeeze on a number of those cool under-the-radar labels that have been finding very good surplus juice to create value labels from.
There are a lot of moving factors that will have an effect on what we see this year. But the point is that there is plenty of good juice to look forward to provided we can get the goods here and people can afford to buy them (the U.S. Dollar is a bit lower against the euro as well). Having plenty of good wine to enjoy should not be a problem!